Transformation of foreign economic relations between Ukraine and the Russian Federation: 2010–2020

Relations between the Russian Federation (RF) and Ukraine are determined primarily by the interstate armed conflict in Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Attempts by Russia to illegally annex the territory of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol in 2014 and their occupation, the armed confrontation in the Donbass determine the long-term nature of the interstate confrontation.

This conflict is asymmetric. For Ukraine, the consequences of the confrontation with Russia are vital, and the course of the conflict affects almost all important social processes. Instead, the Russian leadership views Ukraine primarily as a field of competition with the West in order to "declare the position of the Russian Federation as one of the influential centers of the modern world."

The post-Soviet space is a priority of Russia's foreign policy, simultaneously more importance is attached to cooperation with the states participating in Russia's integration projects.

The Strategy of Economic Security of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030, adopted in 2017, identifies the creation of conditions for the implementation of strategic national priorities of the Russian Federation as a priority for the development of the Russian economy. Thus, the subordination of the economy to the implementation of primarily strategic goals set by the political leadership is stated.

Russia's economic pressure, which was an important instrument of its policy towards Ukraine until 2014, has reached a qualitatively new level since the beginning of the aggression. As well as the use of military instruments, restrictions on Ukrainian exports, stopping the transit of Ukrainian goods through Russian territory, aimed, in particular, at depleting Ukraine's economic resources and limiting its development, as well as forcing our country's political leaders to accept the Kremlin's demands.

The Russian Federation continues to make efforts to minimize its dependence on economic cooperation with Ukraine. It is a question of reducing the role of Ukraine as a transit state for the export of Russian energy carriers, breaking established cooperative ties, primarily in the field of military-industrial complex.

Russian policy almost ignores the interests of Russian business, which persists in Ukraine, despite a significant reduction in activity compared to the maximum levels reached in the early 2010s. The main priority is the desire to keep Ukraine in the orbit of its influence, which in the future should provide compensation for current losses, including economic ones.